Stars vs. Penguins Prediction & Picks - March 28

The Dallas Stars (43-18-11, on a four-game losing streak) hit the road against the Pittsburgh Penguins (36-20-16) at PPG Paints Arena. The game on Saturday, March 28 starts at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

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Before watching this matchup, here is our prediction for which club will emerge victorious in Saturday's hockey action.

The Penguins have put up a 5-3-2 record in their last 10 games. They have totaled 37 goals while allowing 40 in that period. On the power play, 33 opportunities have resulted in seven goals (21.2% conversion rate).

Stars vs. Penguins Predictions for Saturday

Our computer projection model for this encounter predicts a final tally of Penguins 4, Stars 3.

• Moneyline Pick: Penguins (+109)
• Total Pick: Over 6 (computer predicts 6.2 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Penguins (+1.5)

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Stars Splits and Trends

• The Stars (43-18-11 overall) have a 10-11-21 record in games that have needed overtime.
• In the 32 games Dallas has played that were decided by one goal, it has a 19-6-7 record (good for 45 points).
• Looking at the 11 times this season the Stars finished a game with just one goal, they have a 2-7-2 record, good for six points.
• Dallas has scored two goals in nine games this season (3-3-3 record, nine points).
• The Stars are 38-6-6 in the 50 games when they have scored more than two goals (to record 82 points).
• In the 27 games when Dallas has recorded a lone power-play goal, it picked up 44 points after finishing 21-4-2.
• In games when it has outshot opponents, Dallas is 20-8-2 (42 points).
• The Stars have been outshot by opponents 38 times, and went 21-8-9 (51 points).

Penguins Splits and Trends

• The Penguins have a 36-20-16 record this season and are 7-16-23 in matchups that have required overtime.
• Pittsburgh has earned 24 points (9-7-6) in its 22 games decided by one goal.
• In eight games this season when the Penguins finished a game with only one goal, they earned a total of three points (0-5-3).
• When Pittsburgh has scored exactly two goals this season, they've earned four points (0-7-4 record).
• The Penguins have scored more than two goals 49 times, earning 81 points from those matchups (36-4-9).
• This season, Pittsburgh has scored a single power-play goal in 26 games has a record of 13-6-7 in those matchups.
• When it outshoots its opponent this season, Pittsburgh has posted a record of 17-14-9 (43 points).
• The Penguins have been outshot by opponents in 27 games, going 14-6-7 to record 35 points.

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Team Stats Comparison

Stars vs. Penguins Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Saturday, March 28, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

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